University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 11 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to improve as high pressure is stationed over eastern Texas Temperatures will continue to warm but humidity will continue to be relatively high.  The skies will continue to clear with partly cloudy conditions forecast across the region.  On Thursday a weather system will move through Oklahoma and northern Texas bringing the chance of showers to the region.  Winds will be light to moderate with greater strength to the west of the Edwards Plateau and out of the south. Overnight and into tomorrow their strength will remain but shift coming from the west on the western side of the plateau.  To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, winds will be from the south switching to the southeast overnight and into Thursday. High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach the upper 50s today and tomorrow. Lows overnight on Wednesday will be in the mid 40s.  To the north temperatures will be 5 degrees cooler all around with highs on today and Thursday in the low50s. Low temperatures will be near 40 on Wednesday night.  Throughout the entire region skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with increasing clouds overnight and an increasing chance of showers on Thursday.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the sites in Texas all move to the north on light southerly winds then turn towards the south and east as atmospheric conditions change with the movement of a system through the area tomorrow. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions will prevail with an increasing chance of showers, especially to the north, tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will be moderate to cool and humidity will remain moderate to high fueled by precipitation from this weeks weather. 

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Over the plateau temperatures will warm into the upper 50s but humidity will remain moderately high. Skies will clear today but cloudy conditions will reappear as the possibility of showers increases on Thursday. For these reasons the conditions for pollen release are judged to be mixed.  As the week progresses these conditions should deteriorate tomorrow with more weather on its way.  The air masses trajectory characteristics only show rising air conditions today with low wind speeds, characteristics that are good for entrainment and limited travel. However, there is no indication that the trees have begun to pollinate; therefore, the downwind threat is considered to be low over the forecast period - especially with the chance of rain increasing tomorrow.

Trajectory Start(s) (shown by *on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX

Austin, TX

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

Prepared by: Peter K.Van de Water(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University),and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104) This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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