University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Wednesday, December 11 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to improve as high pressure is stationed over eastern Texas.  Temperatures will continue to warm but humidity will continue to be relatively high.  The skies will continue to clear with partly cloudy conditions forecast across the region.  On Thursday a weather system will move through Oklahoma and northern Texas bringing the chance of showers to the region.  Winds will be light to moderate with greater strength to the west of the Edwards Plateau and out of the south.  Overnight and into tomorrow their strength will remain but shift coming from the west on the western side of the plateau.  To the north, in Oklahoma and the Ozark Mountains, winds will be from the south switching to the southeast overnight and into Thursday. High temperatures across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will reach the upper 50s today and tomorrow.  Lows overnight on Wednesday will be in the mid 40s.  To the north temperatures will be 5 degrees cooler all around with highs on today and Thursday in the low50s.  Low temperatures will be near 40 on Wednesday night.  Throughout the entire region skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with increasing clouds overnight and an increasing chance of showers on Thursday.

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move due north into Kansas then head towards the northeast and the Great Lakes over the next 48 hour period.  Light to moderate winds on Wednesday morning will continue overnight with moderate conditions on Thursday.  Partly cloudy skies will prevail today for the region but will deepen with a chance of showers tomorrow.  Temperatures will be in the upper 50s warming to the lower 50s tomorrow.  However, cloudy conditions and moderate to high humidity levels are expected, especially tomorrow.   

OUTLOOK: ***Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in southern Oklahoma will begin to improve, with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.  However high humidity from this week's precipitation does not favor pollen release today. Cloudy conditions with a chance of showers are expected to return on Thursday. Our field informants have yet to indicate active pollination within any of the Juniperus ashei populations; therefore, there is a low threat for pollen release. Yet, the air trajectory characteristics show good lift to the atmosphere with elevations maintaining throughout their coarse.  Therefore, if any pollen is entrained dispersal is expected.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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