University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

 Low

Tulsa

 Low

St. Louis

 Low

Date Issued: 12 December 2002

Mountain Cedar location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional weather: Thursday, December 12 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will deteriorate today as the high pressure slips to the east and a weather system moves through, north of Oklahoma.  Temperatures will continue to be warm but humidity will increase and skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy across the region.  Showers and sprinkles will occur in the northern areas today along with the possibility of rain to the south along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  On Friday, conditions will once again begin to improve region wide with clearing skies to the north and sunny conditions to the south.  Today, winds will be light to moderate and from the south to southwest regional wide shifting to out of the north to northwest overnight and into Friday.  Even with higher humidity across the region high temperatures will be balmy with conditions across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country reaching the upper 50’s to low 60’s both today and tomorrow.  Lows overnight on Wednesday will be in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s.  To the north temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler all around with highs on today and Friday in the mid-40’s to low 50’s.  Low temperatures will be mid 30’s tonight.

Trajectory weather:  The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move north over northeastern Oklahoma then shifts to the southeast.  Light to moderate winds today will continue overnight and into Friday.  Partly cloudy skies will deepen today with a threat of rain this afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will remain in the upper 40’s to low 50’s today and tomorrow.   Overall conditions will improve on Friday with clearing skies as the region begins to dry out.   

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  Conditions in southern Oklahoma will see temperatures in the mid to upper 50’s.  However high humidity and the chance of showers across the region today will not favor pollen release today. Skies are expected to begin to clear with drier conditions occurring on Friday.  Our field informants have yet to indicate active pollination within any of the Juniperus ashei populations therefore pollen release conditions are still considered unfavorable over the forecast period. Yet, the air trajectory characteristics show good lift to the atmosphere with elevations maintaining throughout their coarse.  Therefore, if any pollen is entrained dispersal is expected.

 Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star on map):Sulfur, Oklahoma

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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