The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 13 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 13 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will improve today towards the south as high pressure begins to build over Texas in western Oklahoma.  A significant weather system is currently stationed over Arkansas bringing rain and a rain/snow mix to higher elevations in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas.  This system will move towards the east leaving clearing skies this afternoon into evening and fro tomorrow.  Across the rest of the region sunny skies will prevail.  Temperatures will be in the high 50s to low 60s to the south and low 50s across Oklahoma.  Tonight temperatures will cool into the mid 30s with clear skies.  On Saturday sunny conditions will be the rule across the region with warming conditions and temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s region wide.  As this warming occurs and skies clear the area will dry out and humidity will be on the decrease.  Winds will remain light to moderate from the north to northwest today switching to southwesterly breezes overnight and into tomorrow.  Overall wind speeds will decrease on Saturday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Austin move to the southeast on light winds and sinking air and eventually head out over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trajectories from the western sites of San Angelo and Junction show light winds keeping the trajectories close to their sources.  Temperatures throughout the region will be warm with decreasing humidity and sunny skies.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Low to Moderate Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release today. Over the Plateau temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s with decreasing humidity, sunny skies and light winds.  All conditions that lead to pollen release and therefore favorable conditions are forecast for today. Light winds today and air mass characteristics that do not favor entrainment keep the threat low to moderate today but conditions for pollen release continue to improve. There is a low threat of local or down wind dispersal.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

  

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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