The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

Date Issued: 14 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 14 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to improve today and tomorrow as high pressure builds across the region.  Temperatures will warm significantly throughout the region with low humidity, sunny skies and light winds today increasing to moderate tomorrow.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s from north to south and 3 to 4 degrees warmer tomorrow.  Clear skies tonight will result in cool temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s region wide.  On Sunday warm sunny dry conditions will continue throughout the region, with the warmest conditions to the south but region wide high temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s. Winds will increase to moderate from the southwest.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Austin move to the north then at upper elevations shift to the northeast on light winds and stable atmospheric condtions.  The lower level trajectories cross over the Dallas/Ft. Worth area with the lowest level winds pushing north across northeastern Oklahoma into Kansas.  The trajectories from the western side of the Edwards Plateau also move northward across northern Texas into Oklahoma.  In both cases the upper elevation winds move more rapidly and away from the lower elevations trajectories as they proceed.  Atmospheric conditions result in stable to sinking conditions along each of the tracks as they move to the north. Temperatures throughout the region will be warm with low humidity and sunny skies.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today and Sunday***favorable conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures, sunny skies and low humidity over the Plateau favor pollen release throughout the region today and tomorrow.  In addition, atmospheric concentrations of pollen have been reported indicating that some trees have begun to ripen and release to the atmosphere. Light winds today and air mass characteristics that do not favor entrainment will reduce the threat to downwind populations, in addition being so early in the season large numbers of trees may not yet be releasing.   Therefore the downwind populations of Dallas/ Fort Worth will see a moderate threat today, but if conditions are right might experience significant levels in the atmosphere tomorrow.  The southern edge of the Edwards Plateau will see moderate concentrations from the local vegetation.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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