The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

  

Date Issued: 14 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 14 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to improve today and tomorrow as high pressure builds across the region.  Temperatures will warm significantly throughout the region with low humidity, sunny skies and light winds today increasing to moderate tomorrow.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s from north to south and 3 to 4 degrees warmer tomorrow.  Clear skies tonight will result in cool temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s region wide.  On Sunday warm sunny dry conditions will continue throughout the region, with the warmest conditions to the south but region wide high temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s. Winds will increase to moderate from the southwest.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast on light to moderate winds with the lowest elevation trajectories passing over the St. Louis area.  Sunny and mostly sunny skies will occur over the region with lower humidity and warm temperatures, today and tomorrow.  Winds will be light to moderate from the southwest.  The trajectories show movement from the Ozark Mountain population with stable atmospheric conditions at upper elevations and sinking air at the lowest.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today and Sunday*** favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are favorable for pollen release as warm temperatures, sunny skies and lowered humidity settle in over the region.  In addition, populations to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season.  However, atmospheric characteristics show stable to sinking air along their trajectories which is not conducive to entrainment and long-distance travel.  Yet the good weather conditions today and tomorrow have led to the forecast of a moderate threat today to downwind communities

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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