The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 14 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 14 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to improve today and tomorrow as high pressure builds across the region.  Temperatures will warm significantly throughout the region with low humidity, sunny skies and light winds today increasing to moderate tomorrow.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s from north to south and 3 to 4 degrees warmer tomorrow.  Clear skies tonight will result in cool temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s region wide.  On Sunday warm sunny dry conditions will continue throughout the region, with the warmest conditions to the south but region wide high temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s. Winds will increase to moderate from the southwest.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains moves to the north-northeast over the top of Tulsa as it carries towards the east.  The trajectories pass directly over the Tulsa region and other northeastern Oklahoma localities as it moves out of the region. The air-mass characteristics show little buoyancy moving at low elevations across the region. Temperatures will be warm with sunny skies and low humidity throughout the region.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today and Sunday***favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be warm and sunny with low humidity today and tomorrow.  High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with light to moderate winds.  The good weather conditions should result in favorable pollen release conditions for the region.  In addition, pollen is reported in the atmosphere from the southern populations indicating that the pollination season has begun.  Atmospheric conditions will be good for entrainment and downwind dispersal, however the atmosphere will remain relatively stable across the region without a lot of buoyancy therefore there is only a moderate threat to downwind populations.  However, depending on the number of trees that begin to release the atmospheric concentrations may reach significant concentrations.  Conditions will be better all the way around on Sunday with even warmer temperatures forecast.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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