The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth

Moderate to High

Austin

Moderate to High

San Antonio

Moderate

 

Date Issued: 16 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday, December 16 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will be primarily controlled by high pressure to the east and also over the four-corners area to the west.  However a trough of low pressure will move through the area bringing cloudy conditions region wide.  Temperatures will remain warm but humidity will be high with south to southwesterly flow across the area.  Winds today will be light to moderate increasing tomorrow.  In the south, temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s both today and tomorrow with no significant chance of rain today and a slight chance of precipitation along the southeastern edge of the Plateau tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be mild.  To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail and temperatures will remain warm both today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Temperatures will cool to the mid 40s overnight then back into the upper 50s on Tuesday.  Winds throughout the region will be light to moderate today increasing in strength on Tuesday. 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Austin move to the north-northeast passing through Arkansas and over the St. Louis, Missouri area.  Trajectory characteristics show good lift as it travels suggesting that it will bring pollen as it travels.  The trajectories from Junction and San Angelo both show winds from the western portion of the Edwards plateau moving north across Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma.  The Junction trajectories move more to the east with the lowest elevation winds crossing the Tulsa region.  However the atmospheric characteristics show very little lift and travel near the ground surface.  These characteristics are usually not conducive to the delivery of large concentrations of pollen.  The trajectory from San Angelo is shifted to the west so that the mid-elevation trajectory does cross the Tulsa area and its characteristics show more significant amounts of lift and looks as if it might be a solid contributor to any pollen reaching the northern communities.  However, overall conditions will remain cloudy and very humid, conditions that should slow pollen release in the trees that have begun to shed.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate to High Threat today***mixed to conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures but overcast skies and high humidity over the Plateau produce mixed conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow.  Atmospheric concentrations of pollen have been reported recently indicating that the trees have begun to release pollen, but the weather throughout the region is slighlty less than perfect for optimum pollen release. High humidity along with air mass characteristics that do not favor entrainment will reduce the threat to downwind populations, compared to the weekend.  The regions that do indicate good conditions for entrainment, the western Plateau, have not shown signs of significant release.  In addition being so early in the season large numbers of trees may not yet have ripened cones.   Therefore the downwind populations of Dallas/ Fort Worth will see a moderate threat today, but if conditions are right might experience significant levels in the atmosphere.  The southern edge of the Edwards Plateau will see moderate concentrations from the local vegetation.  There is also a moderate threat to the further downwind communities in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page