The University of Tulsa
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued:
16 December 2002
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional Weather: Monday, December 16 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across
the region will be primarily controlled by high pressure to the east and also over the four-corners area to the
west. However
a trough of low pressure will move through the area bringing cloudy conditions region wide.
Temperatures will remain warm but humidity will be high with south to
southwesterly flow across the area. Winds today will be light to moderate increasing tomorrow.
In the south, temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s both today
and tomorrow with no significant chance of rain today and a slight chance of precipitation along the southeastern
edge of the Plateau tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will be mild.
To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail and temperatures will
remain warm both today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Temperatures will cool to the mid 40s overnight then back into the upper
50s on Tuesday. Winds
throughout the region will be light to moderate today increasing in strength on Tuesday.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from
the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast then shift towards the north to northwest and
eventually end in central North Dakota by Wednesday.
At the release site, in the Ozark Mountains, temperatures will be in
the mid 50s today and tomorrow. Cloudy and humid conditions will prevail as in the rest of the region with light to
moderate winds. The
trajectories show movement from the Ozark Mountain population with buoyant atmospheric conditions that are good
for entrainment and travel of pollen.
OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today*** mixed conditions
for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are only mixed for pollen
release as only moderate temperatures will prevail but cloudy skies and high humidity will settle over the region
today and tomorrow. Populations
to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, which favors some
release within the area. In addition, atmospheric characteristics show rising air that will cause particles to
remain buoyant as they travel. For these reasons a moderate threat to downwind populations exists.
However the trajectories pathway shows a track that is not heavily populated
moving directly north through the central plains
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by black star
on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences,
Oregon State University),
and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science,
The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK
74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released
Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time
of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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