The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 16 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Monday, December 16 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will be primarily controlled by high pressure to the east and also over the four-corners area to the west.  However a trough of low pressure will move through the area bringing cloudy conditions region wide.  Temperatures will remain warm but humidity will be high with south to southwesterly flow across the area.  Winds today will be light to moderate increasing tomorrow.  In the south, temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s both today and tomorrow with no significant chance of rain today and a slight chance of precipitation along the southeastern edge of the Plateau tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be mild.  To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail and temperatures will remain warm both today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.  Temperatures will cool to the mid 40s overnight then back into the upper 50s on Tuesday.  Winds throughout the region will be light to moderate today increasing in strength on Tuesday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains moves to the north-northeast over the top of Tulsa as it moves towards the east.  The trajectories pass directly over the Tulsa region and other northeastern Oklahoma localities as it moves out of the region. The air-mass characteristics show good lift that should provide buoyancy along the pathway keeping and entrained particles air-borne for some distance; however, warm temperatures are combined with overcast skies and high humidity.  No significant precipitation is expected the possibility of drizzle in north Texas exists. Similar conditions will prevail overnight and into tomorrow with increasing wind strength.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate to High Threat today***mixed to favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be warm but humidity will be somewhat high today and tomorrow.  High temperatures will be in the mid 60s today with light to moderate winds increasing in strength tomorrow.  Atmospheric conditions will be good for entrainment if it is released therefore there is a moderate threat to downwind populations in eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri.  However, depending on the number of trees that do shed pollen, the atmospheric concentrations may reach significant concentrations.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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