The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 17 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 17 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to be warm today as high pressure to the east pushes warm humid air across the region.  However this warm humid air will result in cloudy to partly cloudy conditions region wide.  As the day progresses today sun breaks will occur.  Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 60s to mid 70s today and 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  There is a strong south to southwesterly flow across the area with moderate winds both today and tomorrow, reaching strong along the western Edwards Plateau this afternoon.  In the south, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s today and 5 degrees cooler tomorrow with no significant chance of rain either days.  Overnight temperatures will be mild ranging from the upper 30s in the west to near 60 along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail and temperatures will remain warm both today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper mid to low 60s.  Temperatures will cool to the mid 50s.  Winds throughout the region will be moderate today and tomorrow. 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the north passing over eastern Oklahoma as they travel towards Canada.  Trajectory characteristics show good lift in the upper elevation winds but the lowest surface winds from the western side of the Plateau travel near ground level.  However the trajectory pattern is similar to those in the past that have brought significant levels of pollen to downwind areas.  Cloudy conditions may restrain some of the trees from fully releasing however there will be an overall drying of the atmosphere during the day with some sun breaks resulting in conditions that will be good for release.  Humidity will be on the rise tomorrow with the chance of storms developing over the eastern portion of the southern plains.  Todays conditions look good for release, entrainment and travel.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release today. Warm temperatures but cloudy skies and moderate humidity levels will occur over the Plateau today with sun breaks this afternoon and drying conditions all combine for favorable release conditions for the trees.  Atmospheric concentrations of pollen are reported indicating that the trees have begun to ripen and release to the atmosphere. The moderate winds, warm temperatures and drying during the day should overcome cloudy conditions and moderate humidity levels to produce pollen ready to be incorporated into the atmosphere.  Good atmospheric conditions for downwind dispersal could take todays pollen release far downwind as a severe threat exists for downwind communities. Therefore the downwind populations of Dallas/ Fort Worth, eastern Oklahoma and Tulsa will see a severe threat today.  Further downwind communities in Missouri will be under a moderate threat from pollen produced in Texas.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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