The University of Tulsa
Mountain
Cedar Pollen Forecast
Date Issued:
17 December 2002
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO
Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 17 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across
the region will continue to be warm today as high pressure to the east pushes warm humid air across the region. However this
warm humid air will result in cloudy to partly cloudy conditions region wide. As the day progresses today sun breaks will occur. Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 60s to mid 70s today and 5 degrees cooler
tomorrow. There
is a strong south to southwesterly flow across the area with moderate winds both today and tomorrow, reaching strong
along the western Edwards Plateau this afternoon. In the south, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s today and 5 degrees cooler
tomorrow with no significant chance of rain either days.
Overnight temperatures will be mild ranging from the upper 30s in the
west to near 60 along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.
To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail and temperatures will
remain warm both today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper mid to low 60s.
Temperatures will cool to the mid 50s.
Winds throughout the region will be moderate today and tomorrow.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from
the Ozark Mountains move to the north across eastern Missouri and into the upper mid-west. At the release
site, in the Ozark Mountains, temperatures will be in the low 60s to upper 50s today and tomorrow. Cloudy and humid
conditions will prevail with lmoderate winds and the threat of thunderstorms developing overnight and into tomorrow. The trajectories
show movement from the Ozark Mountain population with buoyant atmospheric conditions that are good for entrainment
and travel of pollen.
OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today*** mixed conditions
for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are mixed for pollen release
as warm temperatures will prevail but cloudy skies and high humidity will settle over the region today. Humidity will
increase overnight and a chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. Populations to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the
pollination season, which favors some release within the area. In addition, atmospheric characteristics show rising
air that will cause particles to remain buoyant as they travel.
For these reasons a moderate threat to downwind populations exists. However the
trajectories pathway shows a track that is not heavily populated moving directly north to the upper mid-west.
Trajectory Start (s)
(shown by black star
on map): Oak Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter
K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences,
Oregon State University),
and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science,
The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK
74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released
Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time
of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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