The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 17 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 17 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to be warm today as high pressure to the east pushes warm humid air across the region.  However this warm humid air will result in cloudy to partly cloudy conditions region wide.  As the day progresses today sun breaks will occur.  Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 60s to mid 70s today and 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  There is a strong south to southwesterly flow across the area with moderate winds both today and tomorrow, reaching strong along the western Edwards Plateau this afternoon.  In the south, temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s today and 5 degrees cooler tomorrow with no significant chance of rain either days.  Overnight temperatures will be mild ranging from the upper 30s in the west to near 60 along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will also prevail and temperatures will remain warm both today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the upper mid to low 60s.  Temperatures will cool to the mid 50s.  Winds throughout the region will be moderate today and tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains moves to the north-northeast over the top of Tulsa as it moves towards the east.  The trajectories pass directly over the Tulsa region and other northeastern Oklahoma localities as it moves out of the region. The air-mass characteristics show good lift that should provide buoyancy along the pathway keeping and entrained particles air-borne for some distance.  Warm temperatures, moderate humidity and winds will prevail across the region with cloudy skies this morning breaking into partly cloudy skies this afternoon.  Clouds will return tonight with increasing humidity forecast on Wednesday and the potential for severe thunderstorms developing to the east over Arkansas during the day on Wednesday.  The trajectories and from the Arbuckles all take a similar path, passing across eastern Oklahoma and into Missouri as they travel northward.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be warm with drying conditions and moderate winds but cloudy this morning breaking into partly cloudy skies this afternoon.  These conditions are favorable for pollen release today. Cloudy conditions will occur tonight and higher humidity is expected tomorrow.  High temperatures will be in the mid 60s today with moderate winds from the south to southwest.  Atmospheric conditions will be good for entrainment with good lift as the trajectories travel.  The trajectory pathways cross eastern Oklahoma and into Missouri as they travel from southern Oklahoma as well as the Texas source localities.  Therefore a severe threat exists for Tulsa, but only a moderate threat to Oklahoma City as the trajectories all pass to the east.  With the pollination season just beginning the significant levels of pollen may not be available thus the further downwind communities around St. Louis have a moderate threat today. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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