The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 18 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 18 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to be warm today with a trough of low pressure moving through the area.  Clouds with showers will occur to the north in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas today with thunderstorm building over south Texas this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  These conditions will dissipate overnight and sunny conditions will prevail across Texas tomorrow.  To the north partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will continue with a chance of rain from 10 to 20 percent.  In Texas, temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 60s to low 70s today and 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  There is a strong west to southwesterly flow across the area with moderate winds today, becoming strong this afternoon in some places.  Moderate winds will be sustained overnight but switching to a west to northwest direction tonight and into tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be cool ranging from the 30s and 40s in the west to the low 50s along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail today and tomorrow with a chance of precipitation both days.   Temperatures will be in the low 60s today cooling by 10 degrees tomorrow.  Winds throughout the region will remain moderate from the southwest today switching to a north to northwest flow overnight.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the northeast across Missouri with the two upper trajectories moving rapidly towards the east coast whereas the lowest trajectory travels at ground level towards St. Louis.  At the release site, in the Ozark Mountains, temperatures will be in the upper 50s today and tomorrow.  Cloudy and humid conditions will prevail with moderate winds from the southwest switching overnight to the west to northwest.  The lowest trajectories show movement from the Ozark Mountain population but without buoyant atmospheric conditions, whereas the upper elevation trajectories move very rapidly out of the region. 

 

OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are mixed for pollen release as cool temperatures prevail and cloudy skies settle over the region today.  For these reasons mixed conditions for release are forecast.  Populations to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, which favors some release within the area. However, atmospheric conditions are such that released pollen should travel at ground level and should not take it far from the source. As a result, there is a low threat to downwind populations exists. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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