The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 18 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday, December 18 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will continue to be warm today with a trough of low pressure moving through the area.  Clouds with showers will occur to the north in northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas today with thunderstorm building over south Texas this afternoon along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  These conditions will dissipate overnight and sunny conditions will prevail across Texas tomorrow.  To the north partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions will continue with a chance of rain from 10 to 20 percent.  In Texas, temperatures will remain warm, in the upper 60s to low 70s today and 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  There is a strong west to southwesterly flow across the area with moderate winds today, becoming strong this afternoon in some places.  Moderate winds will be sustained overnight but switching to a west to northwest direction tonight and into tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will be cool ranging from the 30s and 40s in the west to the low 50s along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail today and tomorrow with a chance of precipitation both days.   Temperatures will be in the low 60s today cooling by 10 degrees tomorrow.  Winds throughout the region will remain moderate from the southwest today switching to a north to northwest flow overnight.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains moves to the northwest into Arkansas with the lower elevation winds traveling near ground level and the upper trajectory getting caught in the jet stream and quickly moving towards the upper east coast.  The lower elevation trajectories show air-mass characteristics with little lift therefore any entrained particle should not travel very far.  Cloudy skies will prevail today across the region with a chance of showers today and tomorrow across eastern Oklahoma.  Temperatures will be in the low 60s cooling by 10 degrees tomorrow.  Winds will remain moderate beginning today from the southwest but switching to north-northwest overnight and into tomorrow.

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate threat today***mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will stay warm today with temperatures in the low 60s but will become cloudy with higher humidity.  The area will experience moderate winds this morning that may increase this afternoon. These conditions are mixed for pollen release today. Cloudy conditions will occur tonight and lower humidity is expected tomorrow, but high temperatures will cool by 10 degrees into the lower 50s. Atmospheric conditions are poor for entrainment and travel thus any pollen release should not travel significant distances.  The lower trajectory pathways move into northern Arkansas away from heavily populated urban centers.  A low threat for entrainment and travel exists.. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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