The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

Date Issued: 19 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 19 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will warm today across the south as severe weather continues to move to the east and eventually dissipate tomorrow.  Clouds with showers will occur to the north in Oklahoma and Arkansas today with clearing in the afternoon and conditions improving overnight and into tomorrow. In Texas, temperatures will warm, with highs in the upper 60s today but 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  A north to northwestern flow across the region will bring moderate winds to the region along with the cooler air.  Tomorrow a west to southwest flow is established as conditions sunny skies and an overall warming begins. Overnight tonight temperatures will be cool in the 20s and 30s in the west to the low 40s along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail this morning with a chance of scattered showers.  Skies will clear this afternoon and sunny, clear conditions prevail after that. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s today and tomorrow cooling to near freezing in most localities tonight.  Winds throughout the region will remain moderate from the north to northwest today switching to westerlies overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the southeast passing over the Gulf region with the Austin pathways moving out over the Gulf of Mexico.  The Trajectories from San Angelo and Junction follow the same path but are turned northward tomorrow over eastern Texas. The effect of cooler air moving in from the west northwest will have the effect of keeping all of the trajectories at or near ground level.  Sinking atmospheric conditions are not conducive to the entrainment or travel of pollen away from source areas.  Conditions will settle tomorrow with sunny skies throughout the region, stable temperatures, and west to southwest regional winds establishing themselves. 

 

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat today***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. Sunny skies, with moderate temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds will prevail across the region today and tomorrow making for favorable conditions for pollen release. Atmospheric concentrations of pollen are reported indicating that the trees have begun to ripen and release to the atmosphere. Moderate winds and temperatures favor of pollen release, but the trajectory characteristics are not good for significant long-distance travel.  Cool sinking air will keep any entrained pollen near the ground where local deposition is more likely.  Therefore only a moderate threat exists to communities close to the source, Austin and San Antonio, but that threat rapidly declines downwind and in region to the southeast and in areas away from the trajectory pathways such as Dallas that has a low threat today. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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