The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 19 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will warm today across the south as severe weather continues to move to the east and eventually dissipate tomorrow.  Clouds with showers will occur to the north in Oklahoma and Arkansas today with clearing in the afternoon and conditions improving overnight and into tomorrow. In Texas, temperatures will warm, with highs in the upper 60s today but 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  A north to northwestern flow across the region will bring moderate winds to the region along with the cooler air.  Tomorrow a west to southwest flow is established as conditions sunny skies and an overall warming begins. Overnight tonight temperatures will be cool in the 20s and 30s in the west to the low 40s along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail this morning with a chance of scattered showers.  Skies will clear this afternoon and sunny, clear conditions prevail after that. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s today and tomorrow cooling to near freezing in most localities tonight.  Winds throughout the region will remain moderate from the north to northwest today switching to westerlies overnight and into tomorrow.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the southeast across Louisiana with the two lower trajectories shifting towards the northeast over Tennessee and Kentucky.  At the release site, in the Ozark Mountains, temperatures will be in the low 50s today and tomorrow.  Cloudy and humid conditions will prevail this morning clearing towards the afternoon and into tomorrow.  Moderate winds from the west to northwest will occur today switching overnight to the west.  The trajectories show movement from the Ozark Mountain population but without buoyant atmospheric conditions, therefore as with the trajectories from the other locations, the sinking atmosphere is expected to not carry any entrained pollen far afield from the source areas. 

 

OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are mixed for pollen release as cool temperatures prevail, cloudy skies and drying settle in over the region today.  For these reasons mixed conditions for release are forecast.  Populations to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, but the conditions in the Ozark Mountains are on the edge of conditions we look for to signal significant release. Atmospheric conditions are such that released pollen should travel at ground level and not take it far from the source. For these reasons a low threat to downwind populations exists. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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