The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

 

Date Issued: 19 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 19 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will warm today across the south as severe weather continues to move to the east and eventually dissipate tomorrow.  Clouds with showers will occur to the north in Oklahoma and Arkansas today with clearing in the afternoon and conditions improving overnight and into tomorrow. In Texas, temperatures will warm, with highs in the upper 60s today but 5 degrees cooler tomorrow.  A north to northwestern flow across the region will bring moderate winds to the region along with the cooler air.  Tomorrow a west to southwest flow is established as conditions sunny skies and an overall warming begins. Overnight tonight temperatures will be cool in the 20s and 30s in the west to the low 40s along the southeastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  To the north cloudy conditions will prevail this morning with a chance of scattered showers.  Skies will clear this afternoon and sunny, clear conditions prevail after that. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s today and tomorrow cooling to near freezing in most localities tonight.  Winds throughout the region will remain moderate from the north to northwest today switching to westerlies overnight and into tomorrow.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move towards the southeast on north to northwest winds.  The pathways show movement into Louisiana before being turned to the north, or in the case of the upper elevation winds move out over the Gulf of Mexico.  The trajectories show characteristics of movement at ground level as the cooler, heavier air moves through the region with little lift therefore any entrained particle should not travel very far.  Cloudy skies will prevail this morning but clearing will occur this afternoon and conditions will improve into tomorrow.  Temperatures will be in the upper 50s both days with drying conditions and moderate winds. 

 

OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat today***mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be cooler today with temperatures reaching the upper 50s, with drying conditions once the cloudy skies clear and moderate winds.  These characteristics will result in mixed conditions for pollen release today improving tomorrow.  The mixed conditions are dependent upon how fast conditions improve today and if significant drying occurs relatively rapidly. Atmospheric conditions are poor for entrainment and travel thus any pollen release should not travel significant distances.  All of the trajectory pathways move through Arkansas into Louisiana away from heavily populated urban centers until later in their travels.  Therefore a low threat for entrainment and travel downwind in significant quantities exists. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page