The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth

Severe

Austin

Severe

San Antonio

Severe

 

 

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 20 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will be under the influence of high pressure as the severe weather to the east moves out over the Atlantic.  Clear, cool conditions will occur throughout the region this morning with sunny conditions today and tomorrow for much of the region.  Of coarse with clear skies also comes cool temperatures with much of the area in the 30s.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today and tomorrow.  Humidity will be low as conditions continue to dry out.  Moderate winds will blow across the region from the west to southwest increasing overnight into tomorrow with strong winds during the afternoon especially in north Texas.  To the north sunny, dry conditions will prevail today but with increasing clouds tonight, late, and into tomorrow.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 50s cooling by 5 degrees tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will cool to the low 40s.  Winds will be from the west to southwest both days with moderate conditions today increasing to strong tomorrow. 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the northeast from the western portion of the Edwards Plateau passing over southeastern Oklahoma and into Arkansas.  Those areas in eastern Texas show trajectories that move north into southern Oklahoma between Oklahoma City and the Arbuckle Mountains.  Overall conditions will be good for pollen release, but the cooler, heavier air moving through the region will keep most of the trajectories near ground level.  The upper most trajectories get caught the upper winds and move rapidly away from the area.  The effect of the lower level cold air will be to restrain long-distance travel of pollen entrained into the air stream, However significant amount may move into regional outlier areas on moderate wind levels.  Similar conditions will occur tomorrow with sunny skies throughout the region, stable temperatures, and west to southwest regional winds.  However, strong winds are expected to develop in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma. 

 

OUTLOOK: ***Severe Threat today***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. Sunny skies, with moderate temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds will prevail across the region today and tomorrow making for favorable conditions for pollen release within the trees. Atmospheric concentrations of pollen are reported indicating that the trees have begun to ripen and release to the atmosphere. Moderate winds and temperatures are in favor of pollen release, but the trajectory characteristics are not great for significant long-distance travel.  Cool sinking air will keep any entrained pollen towards the ground where local deposition is more likely.  However, with the favorable conditions for pollen release and an increasing supply of ripening trees this early in the season a severe threat exists to communities close to the source, San Antonio, Austin, Waco, Dallas, but that threat declines downwind.  However communities that may be affected include Oklahoma City east to Tulsa and Fayettville Arkansas 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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