The University
of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar
Pollen Forecast
Date Issued: 20
December 2002
Mountain Cedar
Location(s): Ozark
Mountains, AR/MO
Regional Weather: Friday,
December 20 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will be under the
influence of high pressure as the severe weather to the east moves out over the
Atlantic. Clear, cool conditions
will occur throughout the region this morning with sunny conditions today and
tomorrow for much of the region.
Of coarse with clear skies also comes cool temperatures with much of the
area in the 30s. High temperatures
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today and tomorrow. Humidity will be low as conditions
continue to dry out. Moderate
winds will blow across the region from the west to southwest increasing
overnight into tomorrow with strong winds during the afternoon especially in
north Texas. To the north sunny,
dry conditions will prevail today but with increasing clouds tonight, late, and
into tomorrow. High temperatures
today will be in the upper 50s cooling by 5 degrees tomorrow. Overnight temperatures will cool to the
low 40s. Winds will be from the
west to southwest both days with moderate conditions today increasing to strong
tomorrow.
Trajectory weather:
The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move
to the east to northeast with the lower level winds heading towards the Ohio
River Valley. At the release site,
in the Ozark Mountains, sunny skies will prevail today with temperatures in the
low 50s to upper 40s today and tomorrow.
Cloudy conditions will return tonight and into tomorrow. Moderate winds from the west to southwest
will occur today, sustain themselves through the night and increase tomorrow. The trajectories show movement from the
Ozark Mountain population but without buoyant atmospheric conditions, therefore
as with the trajectories from the other locations, the sinking atmosphere is
expected to not carry entrained pollen far afield from the source areas.
OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions
in the Ozark Mountains are mixed for pollen release as cool
temperatures prevail, sunny skies and drying will occur over the region today
but cloudy more humid conditions return tonight and tomorrow. For these reasons mixed conditions for release are forecast. Trees to the south have begun to
pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, but the
conditions in the Ozark Mountains are on the edge of conditions we look for to
signal significant release. Atmospheric conditions are such that released
pollen should travel near ground level resulting in travel not far from the
source. For these reasons a low threat to
downwind populations exists.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak
Grove, AR
Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State
University), and Estelle
Levetin (Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600
S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104).
This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar
pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and
an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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