The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 20 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 20 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the region will be under the influence of high pressure as the severe weather to the east moves out over the Atlantic.  Clear, cool conditions will occur throughout the region this morning with sunny conditions today and tomorrow for much of the region.  Of coarse with clear skies also comes cool temperatures with much of the area in the 30s.  High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today and tomorrow.  Humidity will be low as conditions continue to dry out.  Moderate winds will blow across the region from the west to southwest increasing overnight into tomorrow with strong winds during the afternoon especially in north Texas.  To the north sunny, dry conditions will prevail today but with increasing clouds tonight, late, and into tomorrow.  High temperatures today will be in the upper 50s cooling by 5 degrees tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will cool to the low 40s.  Winds will be from the west to southwest both days with moderate conditions today increasing to strong tomorrow.

 

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the east to northeast with the lower level winds heading towards the Ohio River Valley.  At the release site, in the Ozark Mountains, sunny skies will prevail today with temperatures in the low 50s to upper 40s today and tomorrow.  Cloudy conditions will return tonight and into tomorrow.  Moderate winds from the west to southwest will occur today, sustain themselves through the night and increase tomorrow.  The trajectories show movement from the Ozark Mountain population but without buoyant atmospheric conditions, therefore as with the trajectories from the other locations, the sinking atmosphere is expected to not carry entrained pollen far afield from the source areas.   

 

OUTLOOK: ***Low Threat today*** mixed conditions for pollen release today. Conditions in the Ozark Mountains are mixed for pollen release as cool temperatures prevail, sunny skies and drying will occur over the region today but cloudy more humid conditions return tonight and tomorrow.  For these reasons mixed conditions for release are forecast.  Trees to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, but the conditions in the Ozark Mountains are on the edge of conditions we look for to signal significant release. Atmospheric conditions are such that released pollen should travel near ground level resulting in travel not far from the source. For these reasons a low threat to downwind populations exists. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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