The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth

Moderate/ Severe

Austin

Severe/ Moderate

San Antonio

Severe/ Moderate

 

 

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 21 and Sunday, December 22 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be under the influence of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico with overall quiet conditions.  To the north a deepening low pressure will move across Oklahoma and into Arkansas over the weekend.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s on Saturday  cooling by 10 degrees on Sunday.  The High pressure in the Gulf will funnel some moisture across the region today but skies will be mostly sunny to sunny.  Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will prevail as the amount of moisture increases.  Winds will be moderate throughout the day but reaching strong, especially in northern Texas, this afternoon with wind advisories posted by the National Weather Service.  Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  Temperatures overnight will be seasonal in the upper 30s and low to mid 40s depending upon your location.  To the north a building low pressure system will move across the area today bringing strong winds and partly cloudy conditions today and tomorrow.  There is little moisture with this weather system therefore the chance of precipitation is low.  Temperatures will reach the mid 50s today cooling by another 5 degrees tomorrow with lows at or below freezing across the region.  Humidity will remain low today and tomorrow with winds showing moderate strength, strong to the south this afternoon, calming overnight and into tomorrow.  Significant weather will move through the region on Monday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Austin move to the northeast  over northeastern Texas.  The surface winds then turn as the low pressure to the north passes across the region. The mid-range winds continue to the east into Louisiana, whereas the upper most trajectory appears to get caught in the jet stream moving it quickly towards the northeast seaboard.  The trajectory at the lowest elevations shows that it stays confined within the state.  To the west the movement of the low pressure system across Oklahoma results in the trajectories looping around the Edwards Plateau.  All three trajectories show poor characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel over long-distances, however with good overall conditions for release significant amounts of pollen may be moved over the area.  Sunday:  On Sunday conditions will continue to be mild with the winds diminishing, temperatures decreasing by 5 to 10 degrees and increased cloudiness and humidity.  A quick look at forecast trajectories for Sunday show rapid movement towards the north to northwest as a significant weather system begins to move in from the west.  The shift in the surface wind direction and good conditions for entrainment and travel will bring the possibility of significant amounts of pollen to northern and northwestern communities such as the Dallas/Ft Worth, Lubbock, Amarillo and other areas in west Texas and western Oklahoma.  A significant weather system will begin to move into the region on Monday.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Saturday: Severe Threat today***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. ***Sunday: Severe Threat today ***Favorable conditions for pollen release today. Sunny skies, with moderate temperatures, low humidity and moderate winds will prevail across the region today especially to the south making for favorable conditions for pollen release within the trees. Atmospheric concentrations of pollen are reported indicating that the trees are actively releasing their pollen to the atmosphere. Low humidity and warm temperatures are in favor of pollen release, but the trajectory characteristics are not great for significant long-distance travel today.  Cool sinking air will keep entrained pollen towards the ground where local deposition is more likely.  However, with the favorable conditions for pollen release and an increasing supply of ripening trees this early in the season a severe threat exists to communities close to the source, San Antonio, Austin, Waco, but that threat declines downwind.  However communities to the east of the Edwards Plateau into Louisiana may be affected by significant amounts.  Sunday:  The passing of the low pressure system to the north today will result in wind reversals across the region.  The trajectories show pollen movement to the north, northwest with good characteristics for pollen entrainment and travel.  A severe threat exist for communities in west Texas and western Oklahoma.  Conditions for release will remain favorable, although skies will be cloudier and the humidity will rise some from the overall dry conditions on Saturday.  For these reasons favorable release conditions are expected 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

 

Junction, TX

 

 

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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