The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

Regional Weather: Saturday, December 21 and Sunday, December 22 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be under the influence of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico with overall quiet conditions.  To the north a deepening low pressure will move across Oklahoma and into Arkansas over the weekend.  In Texas, mild conditions will continue both days as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 60s on Saturday  cooling by 10 degrees on Sunday.  The High pressure in the Gulf will funnel some moisture across the region today but skies will be mostly sunny to sunny.  Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will prevail as the amount of moisture increases.  Winds will be moderate throughout the day but reaching strong, especially in northern Texas, this afternoon with wind advisories posted by the National Weather Service.  Humidity will remain low with zero percent chance of rain over the weekend.  Temperatures overnight will be seasonal in the upper 30s and low to mid 40s depending upon your location.  To the north a building low pressure system will move across the area today bringing strong winds and partly cloudy conditions today and tomorrow.  There is little moisture with this weather system therefore the chance of precipitation is low.  Temperatures will reach the mid 50s today cooling by another 5 degrees tomorrow with lows at or below freezing across the region.  Humidity will remain low today and tomorrow with winds showing moderate strength, strong to the south this afternoon, calming overnight and into tomorrow.  Significant weather will move through the region on Monday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move northeast over northeastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Partly sunny skies will prevail this morning with temperatures reaching the upper 50s and low humidity.  Moderate winds from the south to southwest will increase to strong conditions this afternoon with a severe wind warning released by the National Weather Service for the region as a low pressure system moves across the region.  Sunday: cooler conditions and cloudy skies will prevail with temperatures just getting into the 50 degree range.  Winds will be moderate to light across the region and humidity will be higher. 

 

OUTLOOK: Saturday: ***Severe Threat today***favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunday: *** Low Threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Conditions in the Arbuckle Mountains will be stable with temperatures reaching the upper 50s and relatively dry conditions with moderate winds.  These characteristics will result in favorable conditions for pollen release today.  The air mass trajectory from the source passes directly over Tulsa before moving towards the east over southern Missouri.  The trajectory shows characteristics of rising buoyant air resulting in a severe threat for entrainment and travel.  There is a possibility of significant amounts of pollen deposition in Tulsa with smaller amounts potentially affecting the St. Louis area.  Sunday:  Temperatures will be cooler, barely reaching 50 degrees, with cloudy skis and higher humidity.  For these reasons unfavorable release conditions are forecast and a low threat of entrainment and travel exists.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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