The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

  

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Monday, December 23 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be wet today and tomorrow with winter weather across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle, extending to the east overnight and into Tuesday. Conditions will include rain and thunderstorms to the south, snow and freezing rain across the Texas panhandle and a wintery mix of rain and freezing rain to the north.  Temperatures will be much cooler with the highs in Oklahoma in the low 40s today and in Texas dropping into the 40s as the cold air behind the front moves into the area.  Overnight the northern areas will see temperatures at or near freezing with snow showers from the Oklahoma City region north.  Areas around the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today but cooling by at least 10 degrees tomorrow.  Ahead of the cold front turbulent atmospheric conditions will result in rain and thunderstorms across the southern Edwards Plateau region.  Cloudy conditions, high humidity and moderate winds will prevail across the region today and tomorrow.

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Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south into Texas as cold northern air flows into the region.  The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind early as turbulent atmospheric conditions occur ahead of the cold front to the south.  However the atmosphere looses its buoyancy and the trajectories travel near the ground surface later along their pathway.  Cloudy skies will occur today and tomorrow with a significant chance of precipitation across the region.  High temperatures across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma will struggle to get into the low 40s.  Winds will be moderate from northeast today and north tomorrow.. 

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cold conditions today and tomorrow with increased humidity and a chance of precipitation means unfavorable conditions for release will occur both days.  High temperatures at the source site will struggle to get into the low 40s today and tomorrow with low temperatures overnight at or below freezing.  Snow showers will develop to the north.  Trajectories flow south today over turbulent air in northern Texas resulting in characteristics that are good for entrainment and travel of particles, however the lack of a pollen source because of poor release conditions results in a Low threat to downwind communities.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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