The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 23 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

 

Regional Weather: Monday, December 23 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be wet today and tomorrow with winter weather across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle, extending to the east overnight and into Tuesday. Conditions will include rain and thunderstorms to the south, snow and freezing rain across the Texas panhandle and a wintery mix of rain and freezing rain to the north.  Temperatures will be much cooler with the highs in Oklahoma in the low 40s today and in Texas dropping into the 40s as the cold air behind the front moves into the area.  Overnight the northern areas will see temperatures at or near freezing with snow showers from the Oklahoma City region north.  Areas around the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s today but cooling by at least 10 degrees tomorrow.  Ahead of the cold front turbulent atmospheric conditions will result in rain and thunderstorms across the southern Edwards Plateau region.  Cloudy conditions, high humidity and moderate winds will prevail across the region today and tomorrow.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south over central Texas and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  As with the trajectories from southern Oklahoma, characteristics show turbulent atmospheric conditions resulting in rising characteristics as they head south.  Cooler air then causes the atmosphere to loose buoyancy as the trajectories continue.   Conditions will be very cold at the source area with cloudy conditions and snow expected overnight.  High temperatures in the Ozarks will be in the upper 30s today and tomorrow cooling into the 20s overnight.  Moderate winds will prevail both days.  

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cold temperatures and cloudy conditions result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Trees to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, however conditions are very cold to the north with cloudy, humid conditions.  The trajectories show conditions that are conducive to entrainment and travel of pollen away from the source, but the overall poor weather conditions region wide indicates little chance of release at the source areas.  Therefore there is a low threat for downwind travel today and tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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