The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 24 and Wednesday December 25 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be cold today and tomorrow with winter weather moving east out of the region.  To the north snow showers and flurrys should end this morning to early afternoon.  To the south cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the region.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s to the north and only the upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will continue to be from the north funneling more cold air southward throughout the day and humidity will remain high.  Overnight temperatures will be very cold with lows in the lower 20s north to upper 20s in the south region.  Wednesday:  Christmas will bring similar conditions but with increasing sun breaks in the southern regions.  Temperatures will remain cold with high temperatures along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau just getting into the 50s.  In Oklahoma, the high temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s.  Winds will remain moderate to light predominantly from the northwest but shifting out of the south to southwest as high pressure begins to build over the region.  Conditions will continue to dry, but humidity will remain close to or above 50%.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the south over central Arkansas into Louisiana.  As with the trajectories from southern Oklahoma, characteristics show cold sinking atmospheric conditions with little buoyancy as it heads southward. Conditions will be very cold at the source area with cloudy conditions and snow expected today, cloudy conditions tonight and some sun occurring tomorrow.  High temperatures in the Ozarks will be in the upper 20s today and tomorrow with lows overnight in the teens.  Moderate to light winds will prevail both days.  

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Tuesday and tomorrow, Christmas day*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cold temperatures and cloudy conditions result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Trees to the south have begun to pollinate thus signaling the beginning of the pollination season, however conditions are very cold to the north with cloudy, humid conditions.  The trajectories show conditions that are not conducive to entrainment and travel of pollen away from the source, and with the overall poor weather conditions region wide indicates little chance of release at the source areas.  Therefore there is a low threat for downwind travel today and tomorrow.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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