The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

   

Date Issued: 24 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Tuesday, December 24 and Wednesday December 25 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be cold today and tomorrow with winter weather moving east out of the region.  To the north snow showers and flurrys should end this morning to early afternoon.  To the south cloudy and mostly cloudy conditions will prevail across the region.  High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s to the north and only the upper 40s across the Edwards Plateau.  Winds will continue to be from the north funneling more cold air southward throughout the day and humidity will remain high.  Overnight temperatures will be very cold with lows in the lower 20s north to upper 20s in the south region.  Wednesday:  Christmas will bring similar conditions but with increasing sun breaks in the southern regions.  Temperatures will remain cold with high temperatures along the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau just getting into the 50s.  In Oklahoma, the high temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s.  Winds will remain moderate to light predominantly from the northwest but shifting out of the south to southwest as high pressure begins to build over the region.  Conditions will continue to dry, but humidity will remain close to or above 50%.

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Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move south into Texas as cold northern air flows into the region.  The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  The atmosphere has little buoyancy and the trajectories travel near the ground surface along their pathway.  Cloudy skies with cold conditions will occur today with high humidity as overnight snows will be melting.  Wednesday will see similar conditions but with a greater chance of sun breaks as the cloudy conditions begin to dissipate.  Temperatures will remain cold, in the low 40s, with drying conditions but humidity above 50% and light winds. 

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Tuesday and tomorrow, Christmas Day *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release, Cold conditions today and tomorrow with cloudy skies and increased humidity will result in unfavorable conditions for release today and Tomorrow.  High temperatures at the source site will struggle to get into the upper 30s today and mid 40s tomorrow with low temperatures overnight well below freezing.  Trajectories flow south under the influence of the cold heavy atmospheric conditions at ground level leaving a low threat for entrainment and travel of any material from the source areas on both days.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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