The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

  

Date Issued: 26 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 26 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be improving today and tomorrow as high pressure re-establishes itself across the region.  Temperatures will remain cold today across the northern regions of the area but to the south seasonal conditions will continue.  In Texas warming conditions will push the high temperatures into the mid 50s this afternoon with drying conditions and sunny to mostly sunny skies.  High clouds may drift over the region but there is little chance of precipitation.  Conditions will continue to improve tomorrow with temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s across the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds on both days will be light and from the south to southwest shifting to a more westerly flow tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the upper 20s as freezing conditions occur across the area.  To the north cold conditions will occur today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the 40s today and just pushing into the 50s tomorrow.  Partly cloudy skies this morning will clear this afternoon and mostly sunny to sunny conditions will occur on Friday.  Winds will be light and from the south to southwest on both days.  Relative humidity is low as this dry air mass settles across the region.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the north then eastward through southern Oklahoma and eastern Texas and across central Arkansas as they travel away from the source areas.  Conditions at the sources will be on the cool side today but warming tomorrow.  Yet we are close to the peak of the pollen release season therefore pollen release is expected throughout the Juniperus ashei population.  The trajectory characteristics show the influence of warming conditions with buoyant atmospheric conditions that are good for entrainment of the pollen and transport downwind.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to Severe Threat today ***favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Partly cloudy skies this morning will clear and warmer conditions will occur this afternoon and tomorrow, with drying conditions and moderate winds across the region.  The warming of the atmosphere today and tomorrow will lead to favorable condtions for release across the region.  The trajectory characteristics show  buoyant atmospheric conditions leading to good conditions for entrainment and travel downwind.  Therefore there is a severe threat for pollen to move away from the source areas across the region.  The trajectories show the bulk of the material moving towards the southeastern corner of Oklahoma and into central Arkansas.  In addition pollen should move off of the Edwards Plateau and into the Austin area on westerly to southwesterly winds. Moderate conditions are expected in the San Antonio area, but any drainage in the late afternoon from the Edwards Plateau may result in localized significant pollen levels. Conditions will continue to improve tomorrow for pollen release as weather conditions continue to improve.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX

 

Junction, TX

San Angelo, TX

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page