The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low

Tulsa

Low

St. Louis MO

Low

 

  

Date Issued: 26 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Thursday, December 26 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will be improving today and tomorrow as high pressure re-establishes itself across the region.  Temperatures will remain cold today across the northern regions of the area but to the south seasonal conditions will continue.  In Texas warming conditions will push the high temperatures into the mid 50s this afternoon with drying conditions and sunny to mostly sunny skies.  High clouds may drift over the region but there is little chance of precipitation.  Conditions will continue to improve tomorrow with temperatures reaching the low to mid 60s across the southern edge of the Edwards Plateau.  Winds on both days will be light and from the south to southwest shifting to a more westerly flow tomorrow.  Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the upper 20s as freezing conditions occur across the area.  To the north cold conditions will occur today and tomorrow with high temperatures in the 40s today and just pushing into the 50s tomorrow.  Partly cloudy skies this morning will clear this afternoon and mostly sunny to sunny conditions will occur on Friday.  Winds will be light and from the south to southwest on both days.  Relative humidity is low as this dry air mass settles across the region..

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move north over central Oklahoma then into Kansas before turning towards the east across central Missouri.  The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  However temperatures at the source area will remain cool today but warming tomorrow.  High temperatures at the base of the Arbuckle Mountains are only expected in the upper 40s today but warming into the 50s tomorrow.  Winds will be light from the south and humidity will be dropping as the region continues to dry out.  Temperatues overnight will be below freezing

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** mixed conditions for pollen release. Conditions today will be cool with high temperatures only in the upper 40s but conditions may lead to some limited pollen release.  However with improving conditions tomorrow will be much better.  Because of the suite of conditions that are near the defined boundary for pollen release mixed conditions are expected.   Good atmospheric conditions suggest that if pollen is released limited concentrations will move downwind over the Oklahoma City region.  Overall, a low threat for Oklahoma City but because only limited amounts.   Warming conditions tomorrow may bring much more significant chance of pollen in the atmosphere to these communities. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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