The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas / Fort Worth

Severe

Austin

Severe

San Antonio

Severe

 

  

Date Issued: 27 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 27 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will continue to improve today and tomorrow as high pressure builds across the region bringing warming temperatures and sunny skies. In Texas warming conditions will push the high temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon with drying conditions, low humidity and sunny skies.  Conditions will continue to improve tomorrow with temperatures reaching the mid 60s across the region.  Winds on both days will be moderate from the west today shifting to the southwest tomorrow.  Overnight the clear calm conditions will result in temperatures the mid 30s to lower 40s for chilly conditions but not as bad as the last couple of days.  To the north cold conditions continue with high temperatures in the upper 40s just crossing into the low 50s in some areas.  But sunny skies and light to moderate winds west-southwest will result in very nice conditions.  Relative humidity will remain low as this dry air mass settles across the region.  Low temperatures will be near freezing overnight.  Tomorrow conditions continue to improve as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 50s  with sunny skies and moderate winds from the southwest.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the north into Oklahoma with the upper winds moving further east than the lower elevation winds. Conditions at the sources will be warm, sunny and dry today and tomorrow.  The trees are nearing the peak of the pollen release season therefore significant amounts of pollen release is expected throughout the Juniperus ashei population with the nice weather conditions.  However, the trajectory characteristics show atmospheric conditions that are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Severe Threat today ***favorable conditions for pollen release today.  Sunny skies, dry conditions and warm temperatures coupled with light winds across much of the region result in favorable conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release are expected.  However, fog and high humidity in western portions of the Edwards Plateau are not favorable for pollen release this morning. Fog is expected to clear this afternoon and conditions will dry leading to release this afternoon. The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind.  The winds move the atmosphere along the ground, which usually results in the filtration of entrained particles as they travel. However the large amounts of pollen that is expected may overcome these obstacles by shear volume.  Therefore there is a severe threat for pollen to move away from the source areas across the region.  Therefore communities surrounding the source areas, especially to the north and northeast, should expect a severe threat of pollen in their region.  This includes Dallas, Waco, Austin, and southern Oklahoma.  Because of the high levels of pollen expected to be in the Atmosphere a severe warning is also extended to the San Antonio Region.  To the north, slow moving winds and poor atmospheric conditions should result in lesser amounts reaching central Oklahoma but the possibility exists for lower concentrations therefore a moderate threat exists for Oklahoma city and Tulsa along with central and east central Oklahoma. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

Austin, TX


Junction, TX

 

San Angelo, TX

 

  

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geoscience, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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