The University of Tulsa

The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Ozark Mountains, AR/MO

 

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 27 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will continue to improve today and tomorrow as high pressure builds across the region bringing warming temperatures and sunny skies. In Texas warming conditions will push the high temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon with drying conditions, low humidity and sunny skies.  Conditions will continue to improve tomorrow with temperatures reaching the mid 60s across the region.  Winds on both days will be moderate from the west today shifting to the southwest tomorrow.  Overnight the clear calm conditions will result in temperatures the mid 30s to lower 40s for chilly conditions but not as bad as the last couple of days.  To the north cold conditions continue with high temperatures in the upper 40s just crossing into the low 50s in some areas.  But sunny skies and light to moderate winds west-southwest will result in very nice conditions.  Relative humidity will remain low as this dry air mass settles across the region.  Low temperatures will be near freezing overnight.  Tomorrow conditions continue to improve as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 50s  with sunny skies and moderate winds from the southwest.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Ozark Mountains move to the north and the east over southern Missouri just south of the St. Louis urban area.  Characteristics show some elevational lift downwind indicating buoyant conditions and characteristics for downwind travel.  However, conditions at the source site will be cold again today with high temperatures  in the mid 30s. Winds will be light and from the southwest. Tomorrow conditions will improve but temperatures will remain cold only reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s late in the day.  Partly cloudy skies this morning should break into sunny and clear conditions overnight and into tomorrow.   Temperatures will be in the upper 20s overnight.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today*** unfavorable conditions for pollen release.  Cold temperatures and partly cloudy conditions at the pollen source sites this morning result in unfavorable conditions for pollen release today.  However, the trajectories show conditions that are conducive to entrainment and travel of pollen away from the source, but with a lack of pollen to entrain there is a low threat to any downwind communities.  Conditions will improve tomorrow with regional warming. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Oak Grove, AR

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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