The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

 

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2002

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

 

 

Regional Weather: Friday, December 27 TX/OK/AR: Conditions across the southern regions will continue to improve today and tomorrow as high pressure builds across the region bringing warming temperatures and sunny skies. In Texas warming conditions will push the high temperatures into the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon with drying conditions, low humidity and sunny skies.  Conditions will continue to improve tomorrow with temperatures reaching the mid 60s across the region.  Winds on both days will be moderate from the west today shifting to the southwest tomorrow.  Overnight the clear calm conditions will result in temperatures the mid 30s to lower 40s for chilly conditions but not as bad as the last couple of days.  To the north cold conditions continue with high temperatures in the upper 40s just crossing into the low 50s in some areas.  But sunny skies and light to moderate winds west-southwest will result in very nice conditions.  Relative humidity will remain low as this dry air mass settles across the region.  Low temperatures will be near freezing overnight.  Tomorrow conditions continue to improve as high temperatures reach the mid to upper 50s  with sunny skies and moderate winds from the southwest.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move east  over southern Oklahoma across Arkansas and further to the east.  The trajectories show relatively poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind.  Temperatures at the source area will remain cool but just get into the lower 50s late today at the lower elevations. Winds will be light from the west with low humidity.  Temperatures overnight will be at or just below freezing with much warmer conditions on tap for Saturday.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today from the Arbuckle Mountains *** mixed conditions for pollen release. Conditions today will be cool with high temperatures in the upper 40s, potentially topping out above 50, but sunny skies and dry conditions may lead to some limited pollen release.  Therefore the conditions for pollen release are mixed for today.  Improving conditions are on tap for tomorrow making conditions for pollen release much better. Poor to mixed atmospheric conditions suggest that if pollen is released limited concentrations will move downwind to the east.  Movement of pollen at or near the ground surface generally results in greater impacts with materials at ground level thus cleansing the atmosphere.  Therefore a Low threat exists for downwind travel, especially the more distant urban areas such as Little Rock Arkansas. With warming conditions, tomorrow may bring much more significant chance of pollen in the atmosphere to these communities.  There is a moderate threat for significant pollen deposition in the central Oklahoma region that includes Oklahoma City and Tulsa coming from Texas.  See the Texas forecast for details.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

 

 

 

Prepared by: Peter K. Van de Water (Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University), and Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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