The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 17 December 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 17 and 18. TX/OK: Dry, clear, and cool weather will remain in place for the next several days. In the south, daytime temperatures will be in the 60s during the day and in the 30s at night. In Oklahoma, daytime temperatures will range from the upper 40s to 60 and night-time temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds will be from the west, southwest on Wednesday but shifting back to the northwest as a reinforcing cold front moves across the region on Thursday. Conditions will remain dry with this second front.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the east, northeast this afternoon. Later tonight and tomorrow the air mass moves southeast as the reinforcing front moves into the southern plains. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  Conditions at the sources will be cool this morning and tomorrow but warming in the afternoons.  The trees are just begin pollen release so amount of pollen available is low. In addition atmospheric conditions are marginal for pollen entrainment and transport downwind.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today *** Mixed conditions for pollen release. Sunny skies with dry windy conditions but cool morning temperatures across the region result in mixed conditions for pollen release today. Pollen release might be occurring in the afternoons where cones are mature. The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions for entrainment and travel downwind.  Across the region the cold air will move the air masses along the ground, which usually results in the deposition of entrained particles as they travel.  If pollen release does occur the communities along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau towards the Gulf of Mexico are at slightly increased exposure risk. 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

Austin

Junction

San Angelo

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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