The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas /Fort Worth

Moderate but increasing pollen levels may occur this weekend

Austin

Moderate but increasing pollen levels may occur this weekend

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 19 Dec 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Dec 19-21. TX/OK: Mild weather with above normal temperatures will remain in place for the next several days. On Friday daytime highs will be in the 60s in the south and 50s in the north and night time lows will be near freezing. Skies will be mostly clear with winds from the north in the morning and gradually shifting around to the south in the afternoon and evening. Saturday and Sunday will see daytime temperatures mostly in the 60s (70s in the south) throughout the region with moderate to strong southerly winds. Nighttime temperatures will be mild. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy on Saturday with increasing clouds, southerly winds, and humidity on Sunday ahead of the next frontal system.

 

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories show little movement early this afternoon, but then move north and northeast later today as the winds shift direction. Through the weekend air mass trajectories continue moving to the north, northeast. Trajectories from the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau show good lift and have the potential to carry any pollen long distances. Weather conditions at the sources will be cool Friday morning, but warming quickly. The trees have only recently started releasing pollen so amount of pollen available is moderate but will be increasing daily.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Good conditions for pollen release with mild temperatures and sunshine. Since the trees are just starting to shed pollen, amounts may only be moderate but increasing daily. The trajectory characteristics show good atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind from the eastern side of the Plateau. 


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SAN ANGELO




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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