The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 22 Dec 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 22 and 23. TX/OK: An upper level trough moves into the region today. Ahead of the front temperatures will be very mild in the 60s in the north and 70s in the south with strong southerly winds. Winds will shift to the west and northwest during the day. Precipitation is likely in Oklahoma, including the possibility of strong thunderstorms. Chances for significant rainfall in Texas are much lower. Tuesday will be partly cloudy throughout the region with winds from the north, northwest. Models suggest that winds will be light in Oklahoma and stronger in Texas on Tuesday.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the northeast this afternoon and then turn south over east Texas and on into the Gulf. Trajectories show good lift and may carry pollen from the Arbuckles early today. Weather at the source is good for dispersal this morning but changing as the humidity increases and chance of precipitation increases. Mixed conditions for release tomorrow. Tomorrow's trajectories move to the south then loop back to the north late Tuesday and Wednesday. Tomorrow's trajectories move along the ground, which are poor conditions for entrainment and usually result in the deposition of any entrained particles as they travel.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat this afternoon, Low Threat tonight and tomorrow *** Favorable conditions for pollen release this morning but changing to poor as humidity increases and chances of precipitation increase. Conditions tomorrow will be mixed for pollen release. In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with colder heavy air moving across the region at ground level. 

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.