The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 22 December 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 22 and 23. TX/OK: An upper level trough moves into the region today. Ahead of the front temperatures will be very mild in the 60s in the north and 70s in the south with strong southerly winds. Winds will shift to the west and northwest during the day. Precipitation is likely in Oklahoma, including the possibility of strong thunderstorms. Chances for significant rainfall in Texas are much lower. Tuesday will be partly cloudy throughout the region with winds from the north, northwest. Models suggest that winds will be light in Oklahoma and stronger in Texas on Tuesday..

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move rapidly to the northeast ahead of the frontal system, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau move east near ground level, while upper level winds move northeast. The trajectories moving east show characteristics associated with the frontal system as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level. Conditions at the sources will be mild today in the 70s with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees cooler tomorrow. Tuesday's trajectories move to the south then turn north late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Tomorrow's trajectories move along the ground, which are poor conditions for entrainment and usually result in the deposition of any entrained particles as they travel.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat ***  Favorable conditions for pollen release today; however, limited pollen release is occurring along the cedar populations on the Edward's Plateau. Dry conditions this fall have delayed pollen release. Any precipation associated with today's frontal system may allow trees to reach maturity and begin releasing significant amounts of pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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