The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 24 December 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 24 and 25. TX/OK: Overall the southern plains will see mild conditions continuing for the next several days. Daytime temperatures will be in the 60s in the south and near 50 in the north. Skies will be mostly clear and sunny in Oklahoma with winds from the southeast up to 15 mph. In Texas, clouds will move in, and skies will become overcast later today with winds from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Nighttime temperatures will be cool ranging from low 40s in the south to the upper 20s low to mid 30s in the north. Tomorrow, temperatures will range from the upper 50s in the north to the mid 60s in the south with partly cloudy skies and southerly winds throughout the region.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the north, northeast today. Trajectories from the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau show good lift and have the potential to carry pollen long distances. Conditions at the source are mild with moderate southerly winds in the east but calm coniditons in the west. This will limit downwind movement of pollen from western areas this afternoon. Mild conditions will continue tomorrow with all the trajectories showing good lift and moving northward.

OUTLOOK: *** High to Very High Exposure Risk *** Good conditions for pollen release. Since the trees have entered main release period, significant amounts of pollen release might be expected over the next several days. The trajectory characteristics from the eastern edge of the plateau show good lift today and this should carry pollen north to Dallas, Fort Worth, and communities in Oklahoma and northward. Today's trajectories from the western edge of the plateau do not show optimal conditions for entrainment and travel downwind. Tomorrow trajectories from the entire region will carry pollen north.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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