The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 29 Dec 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 29 and 30. TX/OK: Dry pleasant weather is expected in most areas on Monday and Tuesday. Skies will be mostly clear; daytime temperatures will be mild from the 50s to the 60s and evenings will be cold from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. On Monday winds will be from the northwest up to 10 mph and gradually shift to southwest winds by late afternoon or evening. Winds will be from the south on Tuesday and stronger up to 10 to 20 mph.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon and then turn northeast over eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas and into Missouri tonight and tomorrow. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind this afternoon and evening. Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Sunny skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures occur at the source site this morning. Temperatures close to freezing are expected overnight but warm-up will occur quickly tomorrow under the influence of strong southerly winds.Tomorrows trajectories move north, northeast and show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen.

 

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but low morning temperatures will delay today's pollen release until warm-up occurs this afternoon. Pollen release this afternoon will remain local as trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel. Cold temperatures tonight and warming tomorrow are expected. Tomorrow, conditions will again be favorable for pollen release in the afternoon with good conditions for pollen entrainment and travel. High exposure threat tomorrow in Tulsa and Oklahoma City.

 

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page