The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 29 December 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 29 and 30. TX/OK: Dry pleasant weather is expected in most areas on Monday and Tuesday. Skies will be mostly clear; daytime temperatures will be mild from the 50s to the 60s and evenings will be cold from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. On Monday winds will be from the northwest up to 10 mph and gradually shift to southwest winds by late afternoon or evening. Winds will be from the south on Tuesday and stronger up to 10 to 20 mph.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the southeast this afternoon then turn northward as the winds swing around later this afternoon. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  These trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind this afternoon and evening. Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Conditions at the source are mild with sunny skies. Low temperatures will occur overnight but warm-up will occur quickly tomorrow under the influence of strong southerly winds. Trajectories tomorrow move rapidly north then turn east and show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen, especially from the eastern areas of the Edwards Plateau.

OUTLOOK: *** High Expsoure Risk *** Favorable conditions for pollen release.  Sunny skies with dry conditions and moderate winds are favorable for pollen release both today and tomorrow. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. Today the trajectory characteristics do not show conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind so pollen is likely to remain local and affect individuals along the Edward Plateau. Conditions tomorrow will again be favorable for pollen release and trajectories will move north rapidly with good characteristics for entrainment and travel. Pollen will likely be carried to Dallas/Fort Worth area and north into Oklahoma.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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