The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2003

 

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

 

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 31 and Jan 1. TX/OK: Mild conditions continue through the region on Wednesday with temperatures in the 60s and moderate southerly winds. Gulf moisture begins moving in on the southerly winds replacing the cool dry air that had been in place. Clouds will increase during the afternoon and eveing as the next storm system approaches from the west. The system brings a good chance of rain throughout the region on Thursday along with a chance of thunderstorms. Overnight lows will be mild in the upper 40s in the north and upper 50s in the south. Highs tomorrow will continue mild in the 60s north to low 70s south with continuing southerly winds.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from central Texas move to the north, northeasteast over north Texas, and Oklahoma. Trajectories continue to the north, northeast over the central U.S. Trajectories from the eastern part of the Edwards Plateau show good conditions for pollen entrainment and travel dowwind. Trajectories from the western side are mixed with the air masses moving along the ground in some of the trajectories. Conditions at the source today show mild temperatures, high humidity, and moderate winds from the south. Trajectories tomorrow also show movement to the northeast. Mild temperatures will continue tomorrow but skies will be cloudy with a good chance of rain and thunderstorms throughout the region. Tomorrow's trajectories from the western side of the Plateau are not conducive to downwind travel.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today/ Low to Moderate threat tomorrow *** Fairly good conditions for pollen release today although the humidity is high. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period, pollen release may be expected this afternoon with the pollen travelling north over the Dallas/Fort Worth area.  Higher humidities and chances of rain tomorrow will decrease the likelihood of significant pollen release. However if precipitation fails to materialize pollen release may occur tomorrow and trajectories from the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau show good conditions for downwind travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

 

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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