The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City



Low to Moderate

St. Louis MO


Date Issued: 10 Dec 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, Saturday and Sunday, Dec 10 to 12 . TX/OK: A cold front pushed into the area over night dropping temperatures some on Friday and bringing strong winds from the north, northwest. Temperatures are still mild and will remain so for the weekend. On Friday daytime highs will be in the 60s and 70s in the south and 50s in the north. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the region. On Saturday winds from the north in the morning and gradually shifting around to the south in the afternoon and evening. Saturday and Sunday will see daytime temperatures mostly in the 60s (70s in the south) throughout the region with light southerly winds. Nighttime temperatures will be mild. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. The next frontal system will enter the area on Sunday .

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast over eastern Texas and Louisiana today and into the Gulf of Mexico.Trajectories are not optimal for pollen entrainment with the cold sinking air. Trajectories on Saturday travel to northeast Oklahoma and into Missouri and characteristics are better for entrainment. If Arbuckle populations are releasing pollen, we may see some in northeast Oklahoma. Sunday's trajectories suggest that any pollen released will remain in southern Oklahoma and north Texas.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today/ Low to Moderate Saturday and Sunday *** Good conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today and this weekend, but it is early in the season and we do not have confirmation that the trees in the Arbuckles have started to pollinate. Trajectory characteristics are not optimal for pollen entrainment today but will improve tomorrow and Sunday.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:

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