The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 10 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, and Sun, Dec 10 to 12. TX/OK: A cold front pushed into the area over night dropping temperatures some on Friday and bringing strong winds from the north, northwest. Temperatures are still mild and will remain so for the weekend. On Friday daytime highs will be in the 60s and 70s in the south and 50s in the north. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the region. On Saturday winds from the north in the morning and gradually shifting around to the south in the afternoon and evening. Saturday and Sunday will see daytime temperatures mostly in the 60s (70s in the south) throughout the region with light southerly winds. Nighttime temperatures will be mild. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy on Saturday and Sunday. The next frontal system will enter the area on Sunday .

Trajectory weather: Trajectories move to the south today from the eastern side of the plateau. From the western side of the plateau trajectories travel south and then swing back around tomorrow. Trajectories characteristics are not optimal today for pollen entrainment with the cold air sinking. As a result pollen released today will not travel far. Air mass trajectories for tomorrow show movement to the northeast with better conditions for entrainment, suggesting that pollen may be carried further.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Good conditions for pollen release although pollination has just started in the region. Sunny skies with dry windy conditions across the region result in good conditions for pollen release today. Although winds will drop off tomorrow conditions will remain good for pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

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