The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 13 Dec 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 13 and 14. TX/OK: A strong cold front moved into the area on Sunday and will remain in place over the next few days. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with strong gusty wind from the north. Temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s in Oklahoma and the 50s in Texas. Night time lows will be near 20 in the north and near freezing in the south. Winds will moderate on Tuesday, but temperatures will remain 20 degrees cooler than the mild temperatures of the past weekend.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the south over central Texas on strong northerly winds. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind as cold air drains into the area.  Cold sinking atmospheric conditions results in the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Sunny skies will prevail across the region but cool temperatures and strong gusty winds will occur at the source site today with below freezing conditions expected overnight. Trajectories on Tuesday will move to the south but turn around later in the day as winds shift back around from the south.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today *** mostly unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures will remain in the 40s reducing the chance of any significant pollen release.  Cold temperatures tonight and continued cool temperatures tomorrow.  In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel with cold heavy air moving across the region at ground level.  With cold, dry conditions little release is expected and therefore a Low threat exists for downwind travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu


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