The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 13 and 14. TX/OK: A strong cold front moved into the area on Sunday and will remain in place over the next few days. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with strong gusty wind from the north. Temperatures on Monday will be in the 40s in Oklahoma and the 50s in Texas. Night time lows will be near 20 in the north and near freezing in the south. Winds will moderate on Tuesday, but temperatures will remain 20 degrees cooler than the mild temperatures of the past weekend.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Texas move to the southwest towards Mexico. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  Conditions at the sources will be cool today but dry with sunny clear skies.  The trees have started to release pollen; therefore, some pollen may be released but the cool temperatures should discourage significant release. In addition atmospheric conditions are not particularly good for pollen entrainment and transport downwind. Tomorrow trajectories show the air masses initially moving to the south but then turning to the north as the southerly winds return tomorrow afternoon.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today *** Marginal conditions for pollen release.  Sunny skies with dry windy conditions but cold temperatures coupled with moderate to strong winds across the region result in mixed conditions for pollen release today. However, the cool blustery conditions should restrain significant release.  The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. Those at greatest risk for pollen exposure include people in the south region of the plateau down to San Antonio.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page