The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 17 Dec 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Dec 17 to 19. TX/OK: Mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be followed by the first of several cold fronts moving into the region on Sunday. Day time temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with night time lows in the 30s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy. Winds will be light and variable on Friday with stronger winds from the northwest moving in on Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with night time lows Sunday night in the upper teens in Oklahoma and upper 20s to 30 in Texas.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories today move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east and northeast on light southwest winds. The trajectories show moderate to poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen. Trajectories tomorrow show movement to the southeast over east Texas with moderate northest winds throught the region. Again trajectories show poor characteristics for movement with the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered.  Partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region with mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Forecasting models differ on how far the cold front will extend in the Oklahoma/Texas area. Some models suggest strong northerly winds all day Sunday and other suggest a return to southerly winds on Sunday afternoon. Sunday forecasts will be updated later this weekend.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Friday and Saturday *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Mild temperatures and dry conditions will occur Friday and Saturday allowing for pollen release; however, trajectories show only moderate to poor characteristics for transport. Any pollen released will largely remain local in the Arbuckle area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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