The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 17 Dec 2004
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Dec 17 to 19. TX/OK:
Mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be followed by the first of several cold fronts moving into the region
on Sunday. Day time temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with night time lows in the
30s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy. Winds will be light and variable on Friday with stronger winds from
the northwest moving in on Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with night time lows
Sunday night in the upper teens in Oklahoma and upper 20s to 30 in Texas.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories today move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east and northeast on light southwest winds. The trajectories show moderate to poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen. Trajectories tomorrow show movement to the southeast over east Texas with moderate northest winds throught the region. Again trajectories show poor characteristics for movement with the air-masses moving along the ground where any entrained particles are quickly filtered. Partly cloudy skies will prevail across the region with mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday. Forecasting models differ on how far the cold front will extend in the Oklahoma/Texas area. Some models suggest strong northerly winds all day Sunday and other suggest a return to southerly winds on Sunday afternoon. Sunday forecasts will be updated later this weekend.
OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat
Friday and Saturday *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Mild
temperatures and dry conditions will occur Friday and Saturday allowing for pollen release; however, trajectories
show only moderate to poor characteristics for transport. Any pollen released will largely remain local in
the Arbuckle area.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released
Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time
of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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