The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Moderate |
San Antonio |
Moderate |
Date Issued: 17 December 2004
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Dec 17 to 19. TX/OK:
Mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be followed by the first of several cold fronts moving into the region
on Sunday. Day time temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with night time lows in the
30s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy. Winds will be light and variable on Friday with stronger winds from
the northwest moving in on Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with night time lows
Sunday night in the upper teens in Oklahoma and upper 20s to 30 in Texas.
Trajectory weather: Today's air mass trajectories from
eastern Texas move to the east, southeast towards the Gulf of Mexico on light westerly winds. Trajectories on Saturday
move to the south on stronger northwest winds. None of the trajectories shows ideal characteristics for transport. Conditions
along the Edwards Plateau will be mild and dry Friday and Saturday with clear to partly cloudy skies. Forecasting
models differ on how far the cold front will extend in the Oklahoma/Texas area. Some models suggest strong northerly
winds all day Sunday and other suggest a return to southerly winds on Sunday afternoon. Sunday forecasts will be
updated later this weekend.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today *** Moderately good conditions for pollen release. Sunny to partly cloudy skies with dry
conditions but with low winds across the region result in only a moderate threat today and Saturday. The trajectory
characteristics do not show ideal conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. As a result pollen
release across the Plateau will remain in the area.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released
Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time
of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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