The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth




San Antonio



Date Issued: 17 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Dec 17 to 19. TX/OK: Mild temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be followed by the first of several cold fronts moving into the region on Sunday. Day time temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the 50s and 60s with night time lows in the 30s. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy. Winds will be light and variable on Friday with stronger winds from the northwest moving in on Saturday. Temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees colder with night time lows Sunday night in the upper teens in Oklahoma and upper 20s to 30 in Texas.

Trajectory weather: Today's air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to the east, southeast towards the Gulf of Mexico on light westerly winds. Trajectories on Saturday move to the south on stronger northwest winds. None of the trajectories shows ideal characteristics for transport. Conditions along the Edwards Plateau will be mild and dry Friday and Saturday with clear to partly cloudy skies. Forecasting models differ on how far the cold front will extend in the Oklahoma/Texas area. Some models suggest strong northerly winds all day Sunday and other suggest a return to southerly winds on Sunday afternoon. Sunday forecasts will be updated later this weekend.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today *** Moderately good conditions for pollen release. Sunny to partly cloudy skies with dry conditions but with low winds across the region result in only a moderate threat today and Saturday. The trajectory characteristics do not show ideal conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. As a result pollen release across the Plateau will remain in the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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