The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth



Moderate to High

San Antonio

Moderate to High


Date Issued: 20 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 20 and 21. TX/OK: Temperatures through the region will warm rapidly on Monday with strong winds from the southwest. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with highs around 60 in Oklahoma and the upper 60s to low 70s in Texas. Night time lows on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s. Tuesday will see an arctic cold front moving into the area dropping temperatures to the upper 40s to low 50s in Oklahoma with cloudy skies and winds from the northeast. Texas will remain warm and partly cloudy with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. The cold front will begin to move into Texas late Tuesday. Wednesday will see temperatures in the low 30s in Oklahoma and the 40s in Texas with a chance of precipitation throughout the region.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau show movement to the northeast today but lower level trajectories turn around tomorrow and move back south as the arctic front moves into Oklahoma. Tuesday's trajectories show a similar pattern with the cold front moving south. Conditions at the source today are mild with clear to partly cloudy skies and strong gusty winds from the south, southwest. Mild conditions will continue across the Plateau on Tuesday before the arctic front moves into Texas on Wednesday

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** Good conditions for pollen release. Sunny skies with dry windy conditions across the region result in ideal conditions for pollen release today. Significant amounts of pollen release might be expected; however, we have not seen very high levels yet this season so we are keep the outlook at moderate to high. The trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. As a result much of the pollen is likely to remain local.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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