The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Moderate |
Austin |
Moderate to High |
San Antonio |
Moderate to High |
Date Issued: 20 December 2004
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 20 and 21.
TX/OK: Temperatures through the region will warm rapidly on Monday with strong winds from the southwest.
Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with highs around 60 in Oklahoma and the upper 60s to low 70s in Texas. Night
time lows on Monday will be in the 30s and 40s. Tuesday will see an arctic cold front moving into the area dropping
temperatures to the upper 40s to low 50s in Oklahoma with cloudy skies and winds from the northeast. Texas will
remain warm and partly cloudy with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. The cold front will begin to move into Texas
late Tuesday. Wednesday will see temperatures in the low 30s in Oklahoma and the 40s in Texas with a chance of
precipitation throughout the region.
Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the
Edwards Plateau show movement to the northeast today but lower level trajectories turn around tomorrow and move
back south as the arctic front moves into Oklahoma. Tuesday's trajectories show a similar pattern with the cold
front moving south. Conditions at the source today are mild with clear to partly cloudy skies and strong gusty
winds from the south, southwest. Mild conditions will continue across the Plateau on Tuesday before the arctic
front moves into Texas on Wednesday
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat
today *** Good conditions
for pollen release. Sunny skies with dry windy conditions across the region result in ideal conditions for
pollen release today. Significant amounts of pollen release might be expected; however, we have not seen very high
levels yet this season so we are keep the outlook at moderate to high. The trajectory characteristics do not show
perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. As a result much of the pollen
is likely to remain local.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SAN ANGELO
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The University
of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released
Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time
of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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