The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday and Thursday, Dec 22 and 23. TX/OK: A strong arctic front will move across the southern plains on Wednesday dropping temperatures 20 to 30 degrees from Tuesdays readings. Temperatures in Oklahoma and north Texas will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Highs in south Texas will be in the 50s. Strong northerly winds throughout the area with a chance of precipitation on Wednesday. Some areas in Oklahoma will receive snow and there is a chance of rain in parts of Texas. Frigid temperatures will continue on Thursday and Friday as the cold air covers the region. Daytime highs will be in the 20s and 30s throughout the region. Night time lows in the single digits to teens in the north and low 20s in the south.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau Texas move to the south. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level as the cold air drains into the area. Trajectories are not conducive to pollen entrainment and transport. Conditions at the sources will be cool on Wednesday and very cold on Thursday.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat Wednesday, Low on Thursday *** Mixed condition for pollen release on Wednesday. Temperatures are in the favorable range only in some areas. The cold temperatures coupled with chance of precipitation will limit pollen release on Wednesday. Any pollen released will remain local since trajectories are not favorable for pollen transport. On Thursday conditions will be too cold for pollen release.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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