The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low Friday, Low to Moderate - Sat, Moderate to High - Sun


Low Friday, Moderate to High - Sat, High - Sun

San Antonio

Low Friday, Moderate to High - Sat, High - Sun


Date Issued: 24 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Fri, Sat, Sun, Dec 24-26, 2004. TX/OK: Another cold day throughout the region on Friday. Daytime highs will be in the 30s and lows Friday night will be in the teens and low 20s. Winds will be variable in the region with southerly winds returning on Friday afternoon in Oklahoma. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy in Oklahoma and mostly cloudy in Texas. A warming trend will start Christman day and extend to mid-week. Temperatures on Satuday will be in the upper 40s and 50s and mid to upper 50s on Sunday. Winds will be moderate and from the south or southwest.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the south today and then shift around to the northeast tomorrow. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground and move primarily at ground level.  Conditions at the sources will be cold today with cloudy skies and chances of snow flurries. Cold temperatures should discourage pollen release today but with a greater chance tomorrow. Trajectories on Satuday from the eastern side of the Plateau show movement to the northeast, while those from the western side of the Plateau move to the east during the day tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat Friday, Moderate to High Threat Saturday, High Threat Sunday *** Cold temperatures throughout the area will discourage pollen release today. As temperatures warm into the favorable range on Saturday afternoon, conditions will become favorable for pollen release and remain favorable on Sunday. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. The trajectory characteristics suggest that much of the pollen will remain in Texas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail:


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