The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 Dec 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 27 and 28. TX/OK: The next few days will be warm and dry throughout the region with moderate winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be mainly from the south, although southeast and southwest winds can be expected in some areas. Daytime highs will be in the upper 50s in Oklahoma and the 60s in Texas. Night time lows in the 40s or low 50s.

 

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the north, northeast on Monday and northeast on Tuesday. In additions trajectories show that the air masses from Texas will cross Oklahoma for the next two days. The trajectories from the Arbuckles show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind on Monday and Tuesday. Monday's trajectories from the Edwards Plateau also show good characteristics for entratainment and travel. Sunday night temperatures in the Arbuckles were in the 30s with Monday morning temperatures slowly warming into the favorable range. This will allow for pollen release this afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight with warming tomorrow into the upper 50s in the Arbuckles; again these are favoarble conditions for pollen release.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** mostly favorable conditions for pollen release in the Arbuckle Mountains on Monday, favorable on Tuesday. Sunday night temperatures in the Arbuckles were in the 30s with Monday morning temperatures slowly warming into the favorable range. This will allow for pollen release Monday afternoon. Overnight temperatures on Monday night will be in the low 40s tonight with warming tomorrow into the upper 50s in the Arbuckles; As a result, Tuesday's conditions are more favoarble conditions for pollen release. In addition trajectories from Texas especially the eastern side of the Plateau may bring additional pollen to the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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