The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 December 2004

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday and Tuesday, Dec 27 and 28. TX/OK: The next few days will be warm and dry throughout the region with moderate winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be mainly from the south, although southeast and southwest winds can be expected in some areas. Daytime highs will be in the upper 50s in Oklahoma and the 60s in Texas. Night time lows in the 40s or low 50s.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the north and northeast Monday and Tuesday. Monday's trajectories from all areas show good coniditions for entrainment and travel of pollen. Tuesday's trajectories from the eastern side of the Plateau also show good characteristics for travel, whereas those from the western side are less than ideal for travel. At the source, conditions for pollen release should be favorable this afternoon. Sunday night temperatures across the Edwards Plateau were in the 20s and 30s with Monday morning temperatures only slowly warming into the favorable range. This should allow for pollen release Monday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight with warming Tuesday into the mid to upper 60s across the Plateau with favoarble conditions for pollen release.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** Mostly favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunday night temperatures across the Edwards Plateau were in the 20s and 30s with Monday morning temperatures only slowly warming into the favorable range. This should allow for pollen release Monday afternoon. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected in sheltered areas where localized temperatures may be greater.  Overnight temperatures will be in the low 40s tonight with warming Tuesday into the mid to upper 60s across the Plateau with favoarble conditions for pollen release throughout the area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 600 S. College, Tulsa, OK 74104). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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